Schedule luck
Schedule luck is the gap between the wins you got and the wins your scoring says you earned.
Expected wins
Each week, your all-play record tells you what share of the league you beat. If you beat 8 of 11 teams, you "earned" 8/11 of a win that week, about 0.73. Add that up across the season and you have your expected wins.
Luck
Luck is your actual wins minus your expected wins. Positive means the schedule has been kind: you won more than your scoring deserved. Negative means you have been robbed. Across a whole league, luck adds up to zero, because every win is somebody else's loss.
Example. You are 9-5, but your scores were good enough for 7.1 expected wins. Your luck is +1.9. The team that is 5-9 with 6.8 expected wins is at -1.8.
The schedule swap
The schedule swap table asks a direct question: what would your record be if you had played another team's schedule instead of your own, using your own scores? Read across your row to see how every other schedule would have treated you. If most cells are better than your real record, you drew a hard schedule.
How much to trust it
- It is a description of what happened, not a prediction of what will.
- Over a full season it is meaningful. After three weeks it is mostly noise.
- Median scoring leagues count the extra median game for each team, so wins and expected wins both include it.
Related: all-play record.